System Dynamics Model of CO2 Pollution Stocks Changes Due to Emissions and Absorbent in Indonesia: Memahami Hubungan Sebab Akibat dalam Polusi co2

Naufal Wibisono; Achmed Sukendro; Heridadi Heridadi; Pujo Widodo

doi:10.55227/ijhess.v4i2.1162

Authors

Naufal Wibisono Disaster Management, Republic Indonesia Defense University
Achmed Sukendro Republic Indonesia Defence University
Heridadi Heridadi Republic Indonesia Defence University
Pujo Widodo Republic Indonesia Defence University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55227/ijhess.v4i2.1162

Keywords:

System Dynamics, Pollution, Emission, Absorbent, CO2

Abstract

Air pollution, including CO2 pollution, is a serious issue worldwide, including in Indonesia. This CO2 pollution can impact public health and the environment. In the context of economic development, activities in Indonesia are increasing, leading to higher CO2 emissions. The highest CO2 emissions come from deforestation, large-scale peatland fires, and, to a lesser extent, burning fossil fuels for energy. This research focuses on a simple System Dynamics model approach to understand the cause-and-effect relationship of changes in CO2 pollution stocks concerning emissions and absorption in Indonesia. The method used in this study is qualitative based on system dynamics. System dynamics is a method that can be used to create structures, predict behavior, and provide feedback. The System Dynamics model uses Powersim Studio 10 Express, covering the research period from 2020 to 2040. The results of the system dynamics model show two structures related to CO2 pollution stocks: a positive feedback (reinforcing loop) from CO2 emissions and a negative feedback (balancing loop) from CO2 absorbent. The behavior of the model is exponential growth, it’s also considered valid due to simulation results based on real data processing and statistical analysis, yielding an Average Means Error (AME) of 0.56%.

References

Arifah, F. R. & Rahman, N. A. (2024). Analisis Pengaruh Emisi Zat Karbon terhadap Kerusakan Kualitas Udara dan Pencemaran Lingkungan. Journal Innovation in Education (INOVED) Vol. 2 No. 1 Maret 2024, Hal 278-287.

Dae, Arnoldus. (2022). Terluas dan Terbesar di Dunia, Saatnya Konservasi Ekosistem Karbon Biru Indonesia Masuk NDC. Diunduh di https://mediaindonesia.com/humaniora/512981/terluas-dan-terbesar-di-dunia-saatnya-konservasi-ekosistem-karbon-biru-indonesia-masuk-ndc tanggal 16 Juni 2024.

Dunne, Daisy. (2019). The Carbon Brief Profile: Indonesia. Carbon Brief, Clear on Climate. Diunduh di https://www.carbonbrief.org/the-carbon-brief-profile-indonesia/ tanggal 19 Juni 2024.

Edyanto, H.C.B. (2013). Carbon Emmision As The Base Of The Implementation Of Green Open Spaces In Jakarta. Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Indonesia Vol. 15, No. 1, April 2013 Hlm.1-7.

Forest Digest. (2021). Potensi Blue Carbon Indonesia. Diunduh di https://www.forestdigest.com/detail/1139/apa-itu-blue-carbon tanggal 15 Juni.

Friedlingstein, P., O'Sullivan, M., Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Hauck, J., Olsen, A., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Sitch, S., Le Quéré, C., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Alin, S., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Arneth, A., Arora, V., Bates, N. R., Becker, M., Benoit-Cattin, A., Bittig, H. C., Bopp, L., Bultan, S., Chandra, N., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Evans, W., Florentie, L., Forster, P. M., Gasser, T., Gehlen, M., Gilfillan, D., Gkritzalis, T., Gregor, L., Gruber, N., Harris, I., Hartung, K., Haverd, V., Houghton, R. A., Ilyina, T., Jain, A. K., Joetzjer, E., Kadono, K., Kato, E., Kitidis, V., Korsbakken, J. I., Landschützer, P., Lefèvre, N., Lenton, A., Lienert, S., Liu, Z., Lombardozzi, D., Marland, G., Metzl, N., Munro, D. R., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S.-I., Niwa, Y., O'Brien, K., Ono, T., Palmer, P. I., Pierrot, D., Poulter, B., Resplandy, L., Robertson, E., Rödenbeck, C., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Skjelvan, I., Smith, A. J. P., Sutton, A. J., Tanhua, T., Tans, P. P., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., van der Werf, G., Vuichard, N., Walker, A. P., Wanninkhof, R., Watson, A. J., Willis, D., Wiltshire, A. J., Yuan, W., Yue, X., and Zaehle, S.: Global Carbon Budget 2020, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020.

Griscom, B. W., Adams, J., Ellis, P. W., Houghton, R. A., Lomax, G., Miteva, D. A., Schlesinger, W. H., Shoch, D., Siikamäki, J. V., Smith, P., Woodbury, P., Zganjar, C., Blackman, A., Campari, J., Conant, R. T., Delgado, C., Elias, P., Gopalakrishna, T., Hamsik, M. R., Herrero, M., Fargione, J. (2017). Natural climate solutions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114(44), 11645–11650. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1710465114

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2023). AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023. IPCC

Jia, S., Yang C., Wang M., Failler, P.. (2022). Heterogeneous Impact of Land-Use on Climate Change: Study From a Spatial Perspective. Front. Environ. Sci. 10:840603. doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2022.840603

Muhammadi & Aminullah, Erman & Soesilo, Budhi. (2001). Analisis Sistem Dinamis: Lingkungan Hidup, Sosial, Ekonomi, Manajemen. Jakarta: UMJ Press.

Mutia Annur, C. (2023). Indonesia Masuk Daftar 10 Negara Penghasil Emisi Karbon Terbesar Dunia. Diunduh di https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2023/12/06/indonesia-masuk-daftar-10-negara-penghasil-emisi-karbon-terbesar-dunia tanggal 17 Juni 2024.

Richardson, G. P. (2013). System Dynamics. In S. I. Gass & M. C. Fu (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science (3rd ed., pp. 1519–1521). New York: Springer.

Ritchie, Hannah & Roser, Max. (2023). CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions , Indonesia: CO2 Country Profile. Our World in Data. Diunduh di https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/indonesia tanggal 18 Juni 2024.

Samiaji, Toni. (2011). Gas CO2 di Wilayah Indonesia. Jurnal Berita Dirgantara Vol. 11 No. 1 2007.

Simanjuntak, A.G. (2007). Pencemaran Udara. Jurnal Buletin Limbah Vol. 12 No. 2 Juni 2011: 68-75

Soesilo, Tri Edhi Budhi. (2024). Konseptualisasi dan Sistem Permodelan Bencana. Jakarta: Universitas Pertahanan Republik Indonesia.

Sterman, John D. (2000). Business Dynamics: System Thinking and Modelling for a Complex World. USA The McGrawHill Companies.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2015). Paris Aggrement. UNFCCC.

Wen Keat, K., & Musa, N. B. (2014). Responsible tourism system dynamic planning model for rural area. 2014 the 5th ICT4M 2014, 3–8. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICT4M.2014.7020679